What's up with Ron Paul in the Polls?

I know some people are getting confused when they look at the latest Ron Paul Polling Data. We've seen polls where Ron Paul gets less than 3% and online polls where he attracts up to 80%. So what's the truth? It's not easy to discern, but I'm going to try to help. First, a few things to remember:

1. When it all goes down, the real vote is all that matters.

I was listening to a radio interview with O'Reilly talking with Mark Cuban. Over and over, O'Reilly said that the way to get rid of people he disagrees with strongly is to marginalize them - don't let them be heard. As a media bigshot, he knows this is the way. And all Ron Paul supporters have seen it clearly in the last CNN/YouTube debate and the Katie Couric diss. So if you haven't come to this conclusion already: The Major News Media has an agenda! And to get their way they marginalize the peoples' voice. Remember the early exit polls with Bush/Gore. The media was already convincing people who won before half the country had voted. Remember the treatment of Ross Perot and Ralph Nader when they started getting too close. All you heard was that they didn't have a real chance and that they would just take votes from the other candidates. The populace believing that, guarantees they lose. As far as I can tell, you don't prosecuted for putting out a bad poll either. What people must remember is that they will be bombarded with doubt by opposition. But if that doubt was not allowed to have it's desired effect, and if it was denied thoroughly, the outcome would change the world. So many people didn't vote under the blanket of deliberate Big Media altering the course with doubt. So...The internet polls don't matter that much, straw polls and phone polls don't matter much; but those who stay focused and vote in the end matter a lot.

However, polls give us a indication of a candidates popularity if a poll is legitimate. According to Straw Polls, Ron Paul is the clear favorite. According to Online Polls, Ron Paul is an overwhelming favorite (See RonPaulPolls.com). According to Phone polls presented by major media outlets, Ron Paul is an extreme underdog.

2. Internet vs Old School.

After the first debate on May 3rd, MSNBC ran a poll obtaining over 72,000 responses showing Ron Paul was the most convincing candidate receiving 45% of the vote. His nearest competitor was Mitt Romney who received 18%. Fox news ran its own poll after the second debates on May 15, and with over 40,000 votes Ron Paul came in second with 25% of the vote. MSNBC also ran a poll about that debate and discovered Ron Paul was, again, the most convincing candidate with 64% of the over 25,000 responses. After the third debate on June 5, CNN's poll of over 25,000 respondents showed Ron Paul won with 60% of the vote. After the third debate CNN not only ran a poll, but also asked viewers to voice their opinions about the debates. Comments started pouring in supporting Ron Paul, along with all the votes. The next day CNN removed the comments from their webpage. Clever supporters found these lost comments through Google's cache (a technology that takes a virtual picture of a webpage on a certain date, so you can see if it has changed). Attorney Jennifer Haman of LewRockwell.com gives some good explanations for how these text message polls and online polls can vary so much from the usual phone polls.

1. Typical polls will only call a certain type of voter e.g. people who voted Republican in the last election and this will leave out a lot of Ron Paul supporters. Ron Paul's message of liberty and freedom reaches across the aisle and a lot of previously registered Democrats are switching parties to vote for him in this election. For the same reason, many Libertarians and Independents are also going to be voting as Republicans this election. Much of his support also comes from young people who are voting in their first Presidential election and thus would have no previous voting record.

2. Ron Paul's message of freedom and liberty is so exciting that people who have decided not to vote in past elections have decided that finally they have someone for whom to vote.

3. Some polls are so biased they do not even list Ron Paul as a choice (coincidentally, in a few of those "other" is leading the pack): Hard to win a poll when your name is not on the list.

4. Ron Paul fights for the individual, not the government, and his message appeals to those who like to be left alone. During this election many individuals have caller ID and often choose to avoid telemarketers and callers they do not know. Some of these polls begin with intrusive questions about a person's gender, religious affiliation, annual income, and other information some see as none of anyone's business. If you refuse to answer the initial questions they will not continue with the questions. The type of person that likes Ron Paul, also tends to like privacy.

Something even more revealing about the phone polls at this time is their target. Likely Republican voters often come from a pool of those who voted in the previous republican primary election. Only about 7 percent of Republicans vote in the primaries under normal conditions. Polls taken from the last primary use well under that amount of republicans for their pool because George Bush was running for a second term with basically no contest within the party. Therefore, many of those who are being selected for many of the phone polls are so loyal to George Bush that they would vote for him even when his victory was basically inevitable. Those same supporters are the same portion who vehemently defend the war. I would not expect a great majority for Ron Paul there. But this year...There will be a much bigger turnout, many moderates, many independents, many first time voters, and many party switchers.

This year is going to be big. We are going to find out what the dominant media really is. Only the final result will tell us whether the internet or the phone calls are producing accuracy. Where are people going for their information? We know the internet is constantly growing and becoming a more influencial media. Newspapers are focusing more and more on their online status. The internet polling takes samples of hundreds of thousands of people in some polls. Whereas the typical phone survey samples a few hundred to a few thousand. One is done more voluntarily. I think there is a chance that the internet has become the most influential media, and we are going to find out. And unless Ron Paul gets in, the people's voice on the internet will probably be silenced by more regulations, making it safer for the ultra-powerful.

This Video will give you the most comprehensive understanding of Ron Paul's political positions: